Recently, as the world’s major memory manufacturers announced the financial data of this year’s Q1, I have also compiled a series of latest revenue rankings and trend charts based on various data for your reference: 1) The data of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are from the financial reports released by various official websites. There are slight differences between the data and the data released by DrameXchange, so I choose to use the financial report data. 2) Samsung’s earnings data does not distinguish between DRAM and NAND in memory revenue, so I use DrameXchange’s data and distribute it proportionally, 3) The financial data of other vendors comes from the data released by DrameXchange. The revenue data of other NAND suppliers is my personal estimate, which may be quite different from the actual situation4) Since the revenue data of Changjiang Storage and Changxin Storage in Chinese mainland have not been publicly released, it is currently impossible to display the data of the two separately in my data chart, and the rough estimate of the revenue of the two companies
in Other is the development trend and proportion of the DRAM market (DE data is the data released by DrameXchange). It can be seen that although the Q1 data has increased significantly year-on-year, it has decreased month-on-month compared with the data of Q4 last year,
but considering the strong demand for HBM and server DRAM in the global demand for AI computing chips this year, I expect that DRAM will further strengthen in the follow-up of this year. Here’s my prediction for the global DRAM market this year. According to my personal forecast, the global DRAM market will be about 111.7 billion US dollars in 2025, an increase of about 17.0% year-on-year.
Obviously, the trend of the NAND market is significantly weaker than DRAM, and the top two Samsung and Hynix have both experienced a sharp year-on-year decline due to DrameXchange’s accident This time did not provide other data, so I can only roughly estimate it (and the actual situation will be quite different,
Judging from the trend chart, the NAND market has already shown a downward trend in Q4 last year, However, the plunge in Q1 this year is still a little beyond expectations (especially Hynix’s data)
I am optimistic about the overall growth of the global semiconductor device market in the second half of this year. My personal outlook on the NAND market trend is also positive. However, taking into account the low performance in Q1, I forecast that the total size of the NAND market for this year will reach 58.14 billion US dollars, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%.
After deducting the memory (DRAM, NAND) market data, the data for the non-memory market in Q1 increased slightly from the previous quarter:
I also made a forecast for the trend of the non-memory market. Its market size in 2025 will be about 525.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%
Here are my statistics and forecasts for the revenue and operating profit margins of the memory businesses of the top three suppliers: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. Based on my predictions, I believe that Hynix and Micron will emerge as the winners among these three by 2025, while Samsung may take some time to recover.
Samsung:
SK Hynix:
Micron:
Please note that all of the trend forecasts and conclusions shared here are my personal views, so I encourage you to consider them carefully. Once the data for Q2 is released, I will provide an updated forecast. There may be some differences and changes from the current results at that time.
Special statement: All the above trend forecasts and conclusions are only my personal views and thoughts, so please refer to them carefully. After the data for Q2 comes out, I will make another forecast as soon as possible, and it is likely that there will be some differences and changes from the current results
